Publications

Submitted and in press

• Lim E.-P., H.H. Hendon, J.M. Arblaster, C. Chung, A.F. Moise, P. Hope, G. Young, M. Zhao, et al 2016: Interaction of the recent 50 year SST trend and La Niña 2010: amplification of the Southern Annular Mode and Australian springtime rainfall, Climate Dynamics, in press
• Hope, P., E.-P. Lim, G. Wang, H.H. Hendon and J.M. Arblaster, 2015: Contributors to the record high temperatures across Australia in late spring 2014, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 96 (12), S149-S153
Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster, C. Bitz and C.T.Y. Chung, 2015: Recent Antarctic sea-ice expansion driven by tropical Pacific decadal variability, Nature Geoscience, submitted==!>

Published

2015

• Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster and C.T.Y. Chung, 2015: Disappearance of the souteast U.S. 'warming hole' with the late 1990s transition of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Geophys. Res. Letts. 42(13),5564-5570
• Kay, J. E., Deser, C., et al., 2014, The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Climate Variability, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 96, 1333-1349, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1

2014

• Arblaster J.M., E.-P. Lim, H.H. Hendon, B.C. Trewin, M.C. Wheeler, G. Liu, K. Braganza, 2014: Understanding Australia's hottest September on record, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 95(9), S37-S41
• Meehl G.A., H. Teng and J.M. Arblaster, 2014: Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming, Nature Climate Change, 4, 898-902, doi:10.1038/nclimate2357
• Chung C.T.Y., S.B. Power, J.M. Arblaster, H.A. Rashid, G.L. Roff, 2014: Nonlinear precipitation response to El Niño and global warming in the Indo-Pacific, Climate Dynamics, 42(7-8), 1837-1856.
• Hendon H.H., E.P. Lim, J.M. Arblaster, D. Anderson, 2014: Causes and predictability of the record wet east australian spring 2010, Climate Dynamics, 42(5-6), 1155-1174 .
• Tebaldi, C. and J.M. Arblaster, 2014: Pattern scaling: a review of its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations, Climatic Change, 122, 3, 459-471

2013

• Meehl G.A., W.M. Washington, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, H. Teng, J.E. Kay, A. Gettelman, D.M. Lawrence, B.M. Sanderson, W.G. Strand, 2013: Climate change projections in CESM1(CAM5), J. Climate, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00572.1
• Meehl G.A., A. Hu, J.M. Arblaster, J. Fasullo, K. Trenberth, 2013: Externally forced and internally generated decadal clmiate variability associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, J. Climate, 26, 7298-7310, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00548.1
• Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster and D.R. Marsh, 2013: Could a future "Grand Solar Minimum" like the Maunder minimum stop global warming? Geophys. Res. Letts., 40, 1789-1793, doi:10.1002/grl.50361
• Eyring V., J.M. Arblaster, I. Cionni, J. Sedlacek, J. Perlwitz, P.J. Young, S. Bekki, D. Brgmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W.J. Collins, G. Faluvegi, K.-D. Gottschaldt, L.W. Horowitz, D.E. Kinnison, J.-F. Lamarque, D.R. Marsh, D. Saint-Martin, D.T. Shindell, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, S. Watanabe, 2013, Long-term changes in tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations, J. Geophys. Res., 18, 5029-5060, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50316
• Santer, B.D., et al. 2013, Identifying Human Influences on Atmospheric Temperature, PNAS , 110(1), 26-33
• Meehl G.A. and J.M. Arblaster, 2012: Relating the strength of the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) to the phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20716, doi:10.1029/2012GL053386.
• Arblaster, J.M. and L.V. Alexander, 2012, The impact of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation on maximum temperature extremes, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39(20), L20702, doi:10.1029/2012GL053409
• Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, G. Branstator, 2012: Understanding the U.S. east-west differential of heat extremes in terms of record temperatures and the warming hole, J Climate, 25, 6394-640
• Meehl, G.A. A. Hu, C. Tebaldi, J.M. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, H. Teng, B. Sanderson, T. Ault, W.G. Strand and J.B. White III, 2012: Relative outcomes of climate change mitigation related to global temperature versus sea level rise, Nature Climate Change, 2, 576-580, doi:10.1038/nclimate1529
• Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, H. Teng, C. Tebaldi, B. Sanderson, J-F Lamarque, Andrew Conley, W.G. Strand, and J.B. White III, 2012: Climate system response to external forcings and climate change projections in CCSM4, J. Climate, 25, 3661-3683
• Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, J. Caron, H. Annamalai, M. Jochum, A. Chakraborty, and R. Murtugudde, 2012: Monsoon regimes and processes in CCSM4. Part 1: The Asian-Australian monsoon. J. Climate,25, 2583-2608
• Cook, K.H., G.A. Meehl, and J.M. Arblaster, 2012: Monsoon regimes and processes in CCSM4. Part 2: The African and American monsoons. J. Climate, 25, 2609-2621.
• Tebaldi, C., J.M. Arblaster and R. Knutti, 2011: Mapping model agreement on future climate projections, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L23701, doi:10.1029/2011GL049863
• Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, J.T. Fasullo, A. Hu and K.E. Trenberth, 2011: Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate1229
• Arblaster J.M., G.A. Meehl and D.J. Karoly, 2011: Future climate change in the Southern Hemisphere: Competing effects of ozone and greenhouse gases, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L02701, doi:10.1029/2010GL045384.
• Meehl, G. A., and J. M. Arblaster, 2011: Decadal variability of Asian-Australian monsoon-ENSO-TBO relationships. J. Climate, 24, 4925-4940, DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4015.1
• Cai W., T. Cowan, J.M. Arblaster and S. Wijffels, 2010: On potential causes for an under-estimated global ocean heat content trend in CMIP3 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L17709, doi:10.1029/2010GL044399
• Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster, K. Matthes, F. Sassi and H. van Loon, 2009: Amplifying the Pacific Climate System Response to a Small 11-Year Solar Cycle Forcing, Science, 325, 1114, DOI: 10.1126/science.1172872
• Meehl G.A. and J.M. Arblaster, 2009: A lagged warm event-like response to peaks in solar forcing in the Pacific region, J. Climate, 22, 3647-3660, DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2619.1
• Alexander L.V. and J.M. Arblaster, 2009: Assessing trends in observed and modelled climate extremes over Australia in relation to future projections, Int. J. Climatol., 29, 417-435, doi:10.1002/joc.1730
• Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster, G.W. Branstator and H. van Loon, 2008: A coupled air-sea response mechanism to solar forcing in the Pacific region, J. Climate, 21, 2883-2897
• Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster and W.D. Collins 2008: Effects of black carbon aerosols on the Indian monsoon, J Climate, 21, 2869-2882
• Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster and C. Tebaldi, 2007: Contributions of natural and anthropogenic forcing to changes in temperature extremes over the United States, Geophys. Res. Letts., 34, L19709, doi:10.1029/2007GL030948

• Arblaster J.M. 2006: Seasonal climate summary southern hemisphere (spring 2005): a wet and warm season across much of Australia, Aust. Met. Mag., 55, 231-244
• Tebaldi, C., K. Hayhoe, J.M. Arblaster, G.A. Meehl, 2006: Going to the extremes; An intercomparison of model-simulated historical and futre changes in extreme events, Climatic Change, 79, 185-211
• Arblaster J.M. and G.A. Meehl, 2006: Contributions of external forcings to Southern Annular Mode trends, J. Climate, 19, 2896-2905*
• Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, D.M. Lawrence, A. Seth, E.K. Schneider, B.P. Kirtman and D. Min, 2006: Monsoon regimes in the CCSM3 J. Climate, 19, 2482-2495*
• Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, B.D. Santer, W.D. Collins, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, D.M. Lawrence, H. Teng, L.E. Buja and W.G. Strand Jr, 2006: Climate change projections for the 21st century and climate change commitment in the CCSM3. J. Climate, 19, 2597-2616*
• Timbal B., J.M. Arblaster, S.B. Power, 2006: Attribution of the late 20th century rainfall decline in South-West Australia, J Climate, 19, 2046-2065.*
• Timbal B., J.M. Arblaster, 2005: Land cover change as an additional forcing to explain the rainfall decline in the south west of Australia, Geophys. Res. Letts., 33, doi:10.1029/2005GL025361
• Church J.A., N.J. White and J.M. Arblaster, 2005: Significant decadal-scale impact of volcanic eruptions on sea level and ocean heat content, Nature, 438, 74-77 doi:10.1038/nature04237
• Arblaster J.M. and L.V. Alexander, 2005: Extreme change: an analysis of past, present and future changes in global temperature and precipitation indices, Bulletin of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society, December 2005.
• Meehl G.A., J.M. Arblaster, C.Tebaldi, 2005: Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulations Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L18719, doi:10.1029/2005GL023680
• Meehl G.A., W.M. Washington, W.D. Collins, J.M. Arblaster, A. Hu, L.E. Buja, W.G. Strand and H. Teng, 2005: How much more global warming and sea level rise? Science, 307, 1769-1772.***
• Braganza, K., D.J. Karoly and J .M. Arblaster, 2004: Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L13217, doi:10.1029/2004GL019998
• van Loon H., G.A. Meehl and J.M. Arblaster, 2004: A decadal solar effect in the tropics in July-August. J. Atmos. and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 66, 1767-1778.
• Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, C.M. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, T.M.L. Wigley and C. Tebaldi, 2004: Combinations of Natural and Anthropogenic Forcings in Twentieth-Century Climate. J. Climate, 17, 3721-3727.
• Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, J.M. Arblaster and A. Hu, 2004: Factors affecting climate sensitivity in global coupled models . J. Climate, 17, 1584-1596.
• Santer B.D., M.F. Wehner, T.M.L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G.A. Meehl, K.E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, J.S. Boyle and W. Bruggemann, 2004: Response to comments on "Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent to recent tropopause height changes. Science , 301, 479-483.***
• Santer B.D., M.F. Wehner, T.M.L. Wigley, R. Sausen, G.A. Meehl, K.E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, W.M. Washington, J.S. Boyle and W. Bruggemann, 2003: Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent to recent tropopause height changes. Science , 301, 479-483.***
• Meehl, G.A., Washington W.M., Arblaster J.M. and A. Hu, 2004: Factors affecting climate sensitivity in global coupled models. J. Climate, 17, 1584-1596.
• Meehl, G.A. and J.M. Arblaster, 2003: Mechanisms for projected future changes in south Asian monsoon precipitation. Climate Dynamics, 21, 659-675.
• Karoly D.J., K. Braganza, P.A Stott, J.M. Arblaster, G.A. Meehl, A.J. Broccoli, K.W. Dixon, 2003: Detection of a Human Influence on North American Climate. Science, 302, 1200-1203.***
• Santer B.D., T.M.L. Wigley, G.A. Meehl, M.F. Wehner, C. Mears, M. Schabel, F.J. Wentz, C. Ammann, J.M. Arblaster, T. Bettge, W.M. Washington, K.E. Taylor, J.S. Boyle, W. Bruggemann, C. Doutriaux, 2003: Influence of Satellite Data Uncertainties on the Detection of Externally Forced Climate Change. Science, 300, 1280-1284.***
• Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster and J. Loschnigg, 2003: Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Dynamical Processes in the Tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans and the TBO. J. Climate, 16, 2138-2158.
*
• Loschnigg, J., G.A. Meehl, P.J. Webster, J.M. Arblaster, G.P. Compo, 2003: The Asian Monsoon, the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation, and the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode in the NCAR CSM. J. Climate, 16, 1617-1642.*
• Meehl, G.A. W.M. Washington, T.M.L. Wigley, J.M. Arblaster and A. Dai, 2003: Solar and Greenhouse Gas Forcing and Climate Response in the Twentieth Century. J. Climate, 16, 426-444.*
• Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, 2002: The Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation and Asian-Australian Monsoon Rainfall.J. Climate, 15, 722-744.*
• Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, 2002: Indian Monsoon GCM Sensitivity Experiments Testing Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation Transition Conditions.J. Climate, 15, 923-944.*
• Arblaster, J.M., G.A. Meehl and A.M. Moore, 2002: Interdecadal modulation of Australian rainfall. Climate Dynamics, 18, 519-531.
• Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, 2001: The Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation and Indian Monsoon Rainfall. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 1731-1734.**
• Meehl, G.A., P.R. Gent, J.M. Arblaster, B.L. Otto-Bliesner, E.C. Brady and A. Craig, 2001: Factors that affect the amplitude of El Nino in global coupled models. Climate Dynamics, 17, 515-527.
• Dai, A., G.A. Meehl, W.M. Washington, T.M.L. Wigley and J.M. Arblaster, 2001: Ensemble Simulation of Twenty-First Century Climate Changes: Business As Usual versus CO2 Stabilization . Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 82, 2377-2388.*
• Meehl, G.A., W.D. Collins, B.A. Boville, J.T. Kiehl, T.M.L. Wigley, J.M. Arblaster, 2000: Response of the NCAR Climate System Model to Increased CO2 and the Role of Physical Processes. J. Climate., 13, 1879-1898.*
• Meehl, G.A., W.M. Washington, J.M. Arblaster, T.W. Bettge, and W.G. Strand Jr., 2000: Anthropogenic Forcing and Decadal Climate Variability in Sensitivity Experiments of Twentieth- and Twenty-First-Century Climate. J. Climate., 13, 3728-3744.*
• Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster and W.G. Strand Jr., 2000: Sea-ice effects on climate model sensitivity and low frequency variability. Climate Dynamics, 16, 257-271.
• W.M. Washington, J.W. Weatherly, G.A. Meehl, A.J. Semtner Jr., T.W. Bettge, A.P. Craig, W.G. Strand Jr., J.M. Arblaster, V.B. Wayland, R. James, Y. Zhang, 2000: Parallel Climate Model (PCM) control and transient simulations. Climate Dynamics, 16, 755-774.
• Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster, 1998: The Asian-Australian Monsoon and El Nino-Southern Oscillation in the NCAR Climate System Model. J. Climate., 11, 1356-1385.*
• Meehl, G.A., J.M. Arblaster and W.G. Strand Jr., 1998: Global scale decadal climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 3983-3986.**

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