CESM: Seasonal Forecasting Effort

NCAR-Based Climate Model Joins Seasonal Forecasting Effort

A suite of North American models is filling the prediction gap between weeks and decades

An NCAR-based computer model known for global climate projections decades into the future recently joined a suite of other world-class models being used to forecast what may lie just a few months ahead.

The Community Earth System Model has long been an invaluable tool for scientists investigating how the climate may change in the long term — decades or even centuries into the future. Last summer, CESM became the newest member of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), an innovative effort that combines some techniques typically used in weather forecasting with those used in climate modeling to predict temperature and precipitation seasons in advance. The result is a bridge that helps span the gap between two-week forecasts and decades-long projections. More...

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J. Tribbia & J. Caron