John Fasullo
Introduction
John Fasullo leads societally relevant research aimed at understanding climate variability and change, improving climate models, and supporting the climate science community. Some of his recent research includes the identification of acceleration in the altimeter record of sea level rise, the emergence of the pattern of sea level rise driven by human activities, and the influence of Australian wildfire on recent prolonged La Niña conditions. He is a member of the Climate Analysis Section at NCAR and a Research Associate in the ATOC Department at the University of Colorado. He is a founding member of community activities such as the Climate Data Guide and Climate Variability Diagnostics Package and is the creator of the Climate Model Analysis Tool. Dr. Fasullo also has private-sector experience with environmental impact studies and expert witness testimony. He obtained his B.S. in App/Eng Physics from Cornell University and his Ph.D. from ATOC at the University of Colorado.
Top Publications
Selected Media
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9NEWS: The Climate Impacts of the 2019-20 Australian Bushfires
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9NEWS: Changing El Niño Teleconnections and Wildfire
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9News: El Niño influences on the wildfire season
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Publications (List)
View publications grouped by year with the links below or view the complete list below.
2024
2023
2022
2020-2021
2018-2019
2016-2017
2014-2015
2012-2013
2010-2011
2008-2009
2005-2007
1999-2004
2024
Martinez, C. J., I. R. Simpson, J. T. Fasullo, A. F. Prein, 2024: An Evaluation of the Seasonal Caribbean Hydroclimate in Low and High-Resolution CESM and other CMIP6 Models, Climate Dynamics, accepted. Mishra, S. Upadhyaya, J. T. Fasullo, I.-S. Kang, 2024: Attributing the recent weakening of the South Asian subtropical westerlies, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, accepted. Fasullo, J. T., N. Rosenbloom, and R. Buchholz, 2024: The Influence of Anomalous Biomass Emissions on ENSO in CESM2, J. Clim., accepted. Siqueira, L., B. P. Kirtman; L. C. Laurindo; J. T. Fasullo; A. Hu, 2024: Quantifying the Role of Ocean Dynamics in SST Variability across GCMs and Observations, J. Clim., doi: https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0686.1. Meehl, G. A., C. A. Shields, J. M. Arblaster, R. Neale, A. Hu, H. Annamalai, J.-C. Golaz, J. Fasullo, N. Rosenbloom, L. Van Roekel, and A. Capotondi, 2024: Processes that contribute to future South Asian monsoon differences in E3SMv2 and CESM2, Geo. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2024GL10905. Fasullo, J. T. et al. 2024: An Overview of the E3SM version 2 Large Ensemble and Comparison to other E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles, Earth System Dynamics, 15, doi: 10.5194/esd-15-367-2024. Fasullo, J. T. et al. 2024: Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles, J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0454.1. Cheng, L., Abraham, J., Trenberth, K.E., Boyer, T., Mann, M. E., Zhu, J., Wang, F., Yu, F., Locarnini, R., Fasullo, J. T., Zheng, F., Li, Y., Zhang, B., Wan, L., Chen, X., Wang, D., Feng, L., Song, X., Liu, Y., Reseghetti, F., Simoncelli, S., Gouretski, V., Chen, G., Mishonov, A., Reagan, J., Von Schuckmann, K., Pan, Y., Tan, Z., Zhu, Y., Wei, W., Li, G., Ren, Q., Cao, L. & Lu, Y.. New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023. Adv. Atmos. Sci. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-3378-5. Holland, M. et al. New model ensemble reveals how forcing uncertainty and model structure alter climate simulated across CMIP generations of the Community Earth System Model, Geosci. Model Devel. doi: 10.5194/gmd-2023-125.2023
Hernandez, D. et al Observed changes in hydroclimate attributed to human forcing PLOS Climate, doi: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000303. Meehl et al., Effects of climate base state on intraseasonal, seasonal, and interannual characteristics of the South Asian Monsoon in E3SMv2 and CESM2, Geo. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2023GL104313. Sinha, S., J. T. Fasullo, R. S. Nerem, and C. Monteleoni, Sea Level Projections with Machine Learning Using Altimetry and Climate Model Ensembles, Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning, ICLR2023. Mishra and co-authors: A Need for Actionable Climate Projections Across the Global South, Nature Climate Change.. Yamaguchi, J.-E. and coauthors (2023). Persistent ocean anomalies as a response to northern hemisphere heating induced by biomass burning variability. J. Clim., doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0090.1. Kim, J.-E. and coauthors (2023). Interannual fires as a source for subarctic summer decadal climate variability mediated by permafrost thawing. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science , doi: 10.1038/s41612-023-00415-1. Fasullo, J. T., Rosenbloom, N., & Buchholz, R. (2023). A multiyear tropical Pacific cooling response to recent Australian wildfires in CESM2. Science Advances, 9(19), eadg1213, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adg121. Cheng et al. 2023, Another year of record heat for the oceans, Adv. Atm. Sci., doi: 10.1007/s00376-023-2385-2. Fasullo and Richter 2023: Dependence of Strategic Solar Climate Intervention on Background Scenario and Model Physics, Atm. Chem. and Physics , doi: 10.5194/acp-23-163-2023.2022
PoChedley et al. 2022: Internal variability and forcing influence model-satellite differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming. Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., doi: 10.1073/pnas.2209431119. Cheng, Lijing, Karina von Schuckmann, John P. Abraham, Kevin E. Trenberth, Michael E. Mann, Laure Zanna, Matthew H. England, Jan D. Zika, John T. Fasullo, Yongqiang Yu, Yuying Pan, Jiang Zhu, Emily R. Newson, Ben Bronselaer and Xiaopei Lin. 2022: Past and future ocean warming. Nat. Rev. Earth. Environ. (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00345-1. DeRepentigny, P., Jahn, A., Holland, M., Kay, J., Fasullo, J., Lamarque, J. F., ... & Barrett, A. (2022). Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abo2405. Loeb et al. 2022: Evaluating Twenty-Year Trends in Earth's Energy Flows from Observations J. Geo. Res. Atm., doi: 10.1029/2022JD036686. Stevenson et al. 2022: 21st Century Hydroclimate: A Continually Changing Baseline, with Stronger Extremes, Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., doi: 10.1073/pnas.2108124119. Fasullo, J.T., et al, 2022: Spurious Late Historical-Era Warming in CESM2 Driven by Prescribed Biomass Burning Emissions, Geo. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2021GL097420. Cheng, L., J. Abraham, K. E. Trenberth, J. Fasullo, T. Boyer, M. E. Mann, J. Zhu, F. Wang, R. Locarnini, Y. Li, B. Zhang, Z. Tan, F. Yu, L. Wan, X. Chen, X. Song, Y. Liu, F. Reseghetti, S. Simoncelli, V. Gouretski, G. Chen, A. Mishonov, J. Reagan, 2022: Another record: Ocean warming continues through 2021 Despite La Niña Conditions. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1461-3. Aubry, T. J., Farquharson, J. I., Rowell, C. R., Watt, S. F., Pinel, V., Beckett, F., ... & Sykes, J. S. (2022). Impact of climate change on volcanic processes: current understanding and future challenges. Bulletin of Volcanology, 84(6), 1-11, doi: 10.1007/s00445-022-01562-8.2021
Tewari, K, S. K. Mishra, J. Fasullo and A. Dewan, 2021: Impact of the Antarctic Topography on Meridional Energy Transport and its Consequential Effect in the Monsoon Circulation, Quart. Jour. Roy. Met. Soc., doi:10.1002/qj.4128. Fasullo, J. T., N. Rosenbloom, R. R. Buchholz, G. Danabasoglu, D. M. Lawrence, and J.-F. Lamarque, 2021: Coupled Climate Responses to Recent Australian Wildfire and COVID-19 Emissions Anomalies Estimated in CESM2, Geo. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2021GL093841. Man, W.,M. Zuo, T. Zhou, J. T. Fasullo, I. Bethke, K. Chen, L. Zou, B. Wu, 2021: Potential influences of volcanic eruptions on future global land monsoon precipitation changes, Earth's Future, doi:10.1029/2020EF001803. Cheng, L., J Abraham, K E. Trenberth, J. T. Fasullo, T Boyer, R Locarnini, B Zhang, F Yu YU, L. Wan, X Chen,, X Song, Y Liu, M E. Mann, F Reseghetti, S Simoncelli, V Gouretski, G Chen, A Mishonov, J Reagan, and J Zhu, 2021: Ocean temperatures hit record high in 2020, Adv. Atm. Sci, 10.1007/s00376-021-0447-x. Kato, S., N. Loeb, J. T. Fasullo, K.E. Trenberth, P. Lauritzen, D. Rose, D. Rutan, M. Satoh, 2021: Regional energy and water budget of a precipitating atmosphere over ocean J Clim., doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0175.12020
Hamlington, B., T. Frederikse , P.R. Thompson , J.K. Willis , R.S. Nerem , J.T. Fasullo, 2020: Past, Present and Future Pacific Sea-Level Change, Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2020EF001839. Phillips, A. S., C. Deser, J Fasullo, D. P. Schneider and I. R. Simpson, 2020: Assessing Climate Variability and Change in Model Large Ensembles: A User’s Guide to the “Climate Variability Diagnostics Package for Large Ensembles”, doi:10.5065/h7c7-f961 Covey, Curt, Lindzen, Richard S., Fasullo, John, and Taylor, Karl E. Quasi-stationary Planetary Scale Waves in Modern Climate Models. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.2172/1716593. Jain, S, S K Mishra; A Anand; P Salunke; J. T Fasullo, 2020: Historical and Projected Low-Frequency Variability in the Somali Jet and Indian Summer Monsoon, Clim. Dyn., 56, 749–765, doi:10.1007/s00382-020-05492-z. Cheng, L., K.E. Trenberth, N. Gruber, M. E. Mann, J. P. Abraham, J.T. Fasullo, G. Li, X. Zhao, J. Zhu, 2020: Improved estimates of changes in upper ocean salinity and the hydrological cycle, J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0366.1. Stevenson, S., A. Wittenberg; J. Fasullo, S. Coats, B. Otto-Bliesner, 2020; Understanding Diverse Model Projections of Future Extreme El Niño,J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0969.1. Coats, S., J. E. Smerdon, S. Stevenson, J. T. Fasullo, B Otto-Bliesner, T. R. Ault, Paleoclimate constraints on the spatiotemporal character of past and future droughts, J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0004.1. Liu, Y., J. Li , J. Fasullo , D. L. Galloway , 2020: Land subsidence contributions to relative sea level rise at tide gauge Galveston Pier 21, Texas, Scientific Reports, doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-74696-4. Herrera, D., T R. Ault, C. M. Carrillo, J. T. Fasullo, X. Li, C. P. Evans1, M. J. Alessi1, N. M. Mahowald, 2020: Dynamical characteristics of drought in the Caribbean from observations and simulations, J. Clim, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0100.1. Fasullo, J.T. 2020: Evaluating Simulated Climate Patterns from the CMIP Archives Using Satellite and Reanalysis Datasets, Geo. Mod. Dev., doi:10.5194/gmd-2020-1. Orbe, C. and coauthors, 2020: Representation of Modes of Variability in 6 U.S. Climate Models J. Clim., doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0956.1. Fasullo, J.T., P. Gent, R.S. Nerem 2020; Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades, J. Clim., doi:10.1029/2019JC016030. Hamlington, B. C. G. Piecuch , J.T. Reager, H. Chandanpurkar, T. Frederikse, R. S. Nerem, J. T. Fasullo, S.-H. Cheon 2020; Origin of Interannual Variability in Global Mean Sea Level, Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., doi: 10.1073/pnas.1922190117. Fasullo, J.T., P. Gent, R.S. Nerem 2020; Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble from 1920 to 2100, J. Geo. Res. - Oceans, doi: 10.1029/2019JC016030. Fasullo, J.T., A. Phillips, C. Deser 2020; Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives, J. Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1024.1. Hamlington and Coauthors 2020; Understanding of Contemporary Regional Sea Level Change and the Implications for the Future, Rev. Geophys, doi:10.1029/2019RG000672. Hamlington, B., T. Frederikse, R.S. Nerem, J.T. Fasullo, S. Adhikari 2020: Acceleration of Regional Sea-level Rise During the Satellite Altimeter Era, Geo. Res. Lett., doi:10.1029/2019GL086528. Danabasoglu et al. 2020: The Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), J. Adv. Modeling Earth Systems, 10.1029/2019MS001916. Cheng et al. 2020: Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 10.1007/s00376-020-9283-72018-2019
Simpson, I. et al. 2019: The regional hydroclimate response to stratospheric sulfate geoengineering and the role of stratospheric heating, J. Geo. Res. Atm., 10.1029/2019JD031093 Chandanpurkar, H., J Fasullo, J Reager, Robert Nerem, James Famiglietti, Asymmetric Response of Land Storage to ENSO Phase and Duration, Water, doi:10.3390/w11112249. Fasullo, J.T., B. Otto-Bliesner, S. Stevenson, The Influence of Volcanic Aerosol Meridional Structure on Monsoon Responses over the Last Millennium, Geo. Res. Lett., 46(21),12350-12359, doi:10.1029/2019GL084377. Gettelman, A., J. T. Bacmeister, C. Hannay, R. B. Neale, A. G. Pendergrass, G. Danabasoglu, J.-F. Lamarque, J. T. Fasullo, High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2), Geo. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2019GL083978. Tokarska, K.B., G. C. Hegerl, A. P. Schurer, A. Ribes, and J.T. Fasullo, Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise, Environ. Res. Lett. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/ab23c1. Trenberth, K.T., Y. Zhang, J.T. Fasullo, L. Cheng. Observation-based estimate of global and basin ocean meridional heat transport time series, J. Clim., 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0872.1. Hamlington, Fasullo, Nerem, Kim, Landerer, Uncovering the Pattern of Forced Sea Level Rise in the Satellite Altimeter Record, Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2018GL081386. Cheng, L. K. E. Trenberth, J.T. Fasullo, M. Mayer, M. Balmaseda, J. Zhu, Evolution of ocean heat content related to ENSO, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0607.1. Cheng, Zhu, Abraham, Trenberth, Fasullo, Boyer, Locarini, Zhang, Wan, Chen, Song 2018 Continues Record Global Ocean Warming, Adv. Atm. Sci.,10.1007/s00376-019-8276-x Trenberth, K.T., Y. Zhang, J.T. Fasullo, L. Cheng. Observation-based estimate of global and basin ocean meridional heat transport time series, J. Clim., 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0872.1. Cheng, L. K. E. Trenberth, J.T. Fasullo, M. Mayer, M. Balmaseda, J. Zhu, Evolution of ocean heat content related to ENSO, Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0607.1. Cheng, Zhu, Abraham, Trenberth, Fasullo, Boyer, Locarini, Zhang, Wan, Chen, Song 2018 Continues Record Global Ocean Warming, Adv. Atm. Sci.,10.1007/s00376-019-8276-x Nerem, R.S., and J.T. Fasullo: Observations of the Rate and Acceleration of Sea Level Change, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0247.1. Fasullo, J.T., R. S. Nerem, Altimeter-Era Emergence of the Patterns of Forced Sea Level Rise in Climate Models and Implications for the Future, Proc. Nat. Aca. Sci., 10.1073/pnas.1813233115. Herrera, T. Ault, J.T. Fasullo, S. Coats, C. Carillo, and Benjamin Cook 2018: Unprecedented 2013–2016 Caribbean drought intensified by climate change, Geo. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2018GL079408. Fasullo, J.T., and coauthors 2018: Persistent Polar Ocean Warming in a Strategically Geoengineered Climate, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-018-0249-7. Fasullo, J.T., B. Otto-Bliesner, S. Stevenson 2018; ENSO Teleconnections to Temperature, Precipitation and Wildfire in a Warming Climate, Geo. Res. Lett., doi: 10.1029/2018GL079022. Tilmes, S., and coauthors 2018: CESM1(WACCM) Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS) Project, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0267.1. Trenberth, K.T., L. Cheng, P. Jacobs, Y. Zhang J.T. Fasullo 2018: Hurricane Harvey links to ocean heat content and climate change adaptation, Earth's Future, doi: 10.1029/2018EF000825. Trenberth, K.T. and J.T. Fasullo 2018: Applications of an updated atmospheric energetics formulation, J. Clim., doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0838.1. Fasullo, J.T. 2018: Sea Level Rise, McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of Science and Technology. doi: 10.1036/1097-8542.609550 Mishra, S.K., Anand A., Bhagat S., and J.T. Fasullo 2018: Importance of the Resolution of Surface Topography in Indian Monsoon Simulation, J. Clim., doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0324.1. Stevenson, S, J. Overpeck, J.T. Fasullo, S. Coats, L. Parsons, T. Ault, B. Otto-Bliesner, G. Loope, J. Cole 2018: Climate Variability, Volcanic Forcing, and Last Millennium Hydroclimate Extremes, J. Clim.,doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0407.1. R. S. Nerem, B. D. Beckley, J.T. Fasullo, B. D. Hamlington, D. Masters and G. T. Mitchum 2018: Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era. PNAS 2018 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1717312115.2016-2017
Owens, M.J., M. Lockwood, E. Hawkins, I. Usoskin, G. Jones, L. Barnard, A. Schurer; J.T. Fasullo 2017: The Maunder minimum and the Little Ice Age: an update from recent reconstructions and climate simulations, J. Space Weather Space Clim.,7,A33, doi: https://doi.org/10.1051/swsc/2017034. Global climate impacts of a potential volcanic eruption of Mount Agung, Skeptical Science. Fasullo, J.T., and P. R. Gent 2017: On the Relationship between Regional Ocean Heat Content and Sea Surface Height, J. Climate, 30, 9195–9211, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0920.1. Fasullo, J.T., R. Tomas, S. Stevenson, B. Otto-Bleisner, E. Brady, and E. Wahl 2017: The Amplifying Influence of Increased Ocean Stratification on A Future Year Without A Summer, Nature Communications, doi: 10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z. Cheng, L., K. E. Trenberth, J.T. Fasullo, J. Abraham, T. Boyer, K. von Schuckmann, J. Zhu 2018: Taking the pulse of the planet. Earth and Space Science News, Eos, 99, 14-16. Doi: 10.1029/2017EO081839. Wang, P. X., Wang, B., Cheng, H., Fasullo, J.T., Guo, Z. T., Kiefer, T., and Liu, Z. Y.: 2017, The Global Monsoon across Time Scales: Mechanisms and outstanding issues, Earth Science Reviews, 174, 84-121, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2017.07.006. Trenberth, K. E. and J.T. Fasullo 2017: Atlantic meridional heat transports computed from balancing Earth’s energy locally, Geo.Phys. Res. Lett.,44, doi:10.1002/2016GL072475. Cheng, L, K. Trenberth, J.T. Fasullo, T. Boyer, J. Abraham, J. Zhu 2017: Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015, Science Advances, 3, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1601545. Stevenson, S., A. Capotondi, J.T. Fasullo and B. Otto-Bliesner 2017: Forced Changes to 20th Century ENSO Diversity in a Last Millennium Context, Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3573-5. Stevenson, S., B. Otto-Bliesner, J.T. Fasullo 2017: Considering Eruption Season to Reconcile Model and Proxy Responses to Tropical Volcanism, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci., 114, 1822–1826, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1612505114. Fasullo, J.T., and R. S. Nerem 2016: Interannual Variability in Global Mean Sea Level Estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles, Water, 8 (11), 491; doi:10.3390/w8110491. Fasullo, J.T., R. S. Nerem, and B. Hamlington 2016: Is detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent? Scientific Reports, 6, 31245, doi:10.1038/srep31245.
Trenberth, K. E., J.T. Fasullo, K. von Schuckmann and L. Cheng 2016: Insights into Earth’s energy imbalance from multiple sources. J. Climate, 29, 7495-7505. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0339, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0339.1
Covey, C., P.J. Gleckler, C. Doutriaux, D.N. Williams, A. Dai, J.T. Fasullo, K.E. Trenberth, and A. Berg 2016: Metrics for the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation: Toward Routine Benchmarks for Climate Models, J. Clim., 29, 4461-4471, http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0664.1.
Fasullo, J.T., D. Lawrence, and S. Swenson 2016: Are GRACE-Era Terrestrial Water Trends Driven By Anthropogenic Climate Change? Advances in Meteorology, doi:10.1155/2016/4830603.
Mayer, M., J.T. Fasullo, K E. Trenberth, L. Haimberger 2016: ENSO-Driven Energy Budget Perturbations in CMIP models, Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3057-z.
Stevenson, S., B. Otto-Bliesner, J.T. Fasullo, and E. Brady 2016: 'El Nino Like' Hydroclimate Responses to Last Millennium Volcanic Eruptions J. Clim., http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0239.1.