IAM Publications
The list below contains selected IAM publications, organized by year. IAM-affiliated authors are noted in bold. Click on a year to see publications for that year, or see the aggregated list below. For complete lists of staff members' publications, see individual IAM staff pages.
2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009
Bongaarts, J., O'Neill, B.C., 2018. Global warming policy: Is population left out in the cold? Science 361, 650-652. DOI: 10.1126/science.aat8680
Zoraghein, H., Jiang, L., 2018. The Improved Urbanization Projections of the NCAR Community Demographic Model (CDM). NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-548+STR, 40 pp, DOI: 10.5065/D6WS8S2C
Cavallini Johansen, I., R. Luiz do Carmo, E. K. Laidlaw, and L. Jiang, 2018. An update of Brazilian household-level income and consumption patterns as an input to the iPETS model. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-549+STR, 42 pp, DOI: 10.5065/D6S181BB
Jiang, L., O'Neill, B.C., 2018. Determinants of urban growth during demographic and mobility transitions: Evidence from India, Mexico, and the US. Population and Development Review, 44(2), 363–38. DOI: 10.1111/padr.12150
Jiang, L., Zoraghein, H., O'Neill, B.C., 2018: Population projections for US states under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways based on global gridded population projections. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-542+STR, 49 pp. DOI: 10.5065/D6930RXZ
Jones, B., Tebaldi, C., O'Neill, B.C., Oleson, K., Gao, J., 2018. Avoiding population exposure to heat-related extremes: demographic change vs climate change.Climatic Change, 1-15. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2133-7
Laidlaw, E.K., Jiang, L., 2018. An update of Indonesian household-level income and consumption patterns as an input to the iPETS model. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-543+STR, 46 pp. DOI: 10.5065/D6NV9H2Z.
O'Neill, B.C., Gettelman, A., 2018. An introduction to the special issue on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE). Climatic Change 1-9. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2136-4.
Tanaka, K., O'Neill, BC., 2018. The Paris Agreement zero-emissions goal is not always consistent with the 1.5°C and 2°C temperature targets. Nature Climate Change, 8, 319–324. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0097-x
Gao, J., 2017. Downscaling Global Spatial Population Projections from 1/8-degree to 1-km Grid Cell. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-537+STR, 9pp. DOI: 10.5065/D60Z721H
Hooke, W.H. Arrigo, J, Hurwitz, M. Laidlaw, E., Mishra, S., Patrinos, T., Seid-Green, Y., Shontz, K., Stepp, M., Tessendorf, S., Westley, M., Yanchilina, A. 2017. Harnessing (Geo)Science and Technology for National Benefit—and How That Benefit Can Be Enhanced and Sustained. An AMS Policy Program Study. The American Meteorological Society, Washington, DC.
Lu, Y., Williams, I. N., Bagley, J. E., Torn, M. S., Kueppers, L. M., 2017. Representing winter wheat in the Community Land Model (version 4.5). Geoscientific Model Development, 10, 1873-1888. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-1873-2017
Melnikov, N.B., O'Neill, B.C., Dalton, M.G., van Ruijven, B.J., 2017. Downscaling heterogeneous household outcomes in dynamic CGE models for energy-economic analysis. Energy Economics, 65, 87-97. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.04.023
O'Neill, B.C., Done, J.M., Gettelman, A., Lawrence, P., Lehner, F., Lamarque, J-F., Lin, L., Monaghan, A.J., Oleson, K., Ren, X., Sanderson, B.M., Tebaldi, C., Weitzel, M., Xu, Y., Anderson, B., Fix, M.J., Levis, S., 2017. The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE): A synthesis. Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2009-x
O’Neill B.C., Oppenheimer M., Warren R., Hallegatte S., Kopp R.E., Portner H.O., Scholes R., Birkmann J., Foden W., Licker R., Mach K.J., Marbaix P., Mastrandrea M.D., Price J., Takahashi K., van Ypersele J.-P., Yohe G., 2017. IPCC reasons for concern regarding climate change risks. Nature Climate Change, 7, 28–37. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3179
Rao, N.D., van Ruijven, B.J., Riahi, K., Bosetti, V., 2017. Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research. Nature, 7, 857–862. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-017-0004-x
Sanderson B.M., Xu Y., Tebaldi C., Wehner M., O'Neill B.C., Jahn A., Pendergrass A.G., Lehner F., Strand W.G., Lin, L., Knutti, R., and Lamarque, J.F., 2017. Community climate simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5 and 2°C futures. Earth System Dynamics, 8, 827-847.
Clarke L., McFarland J., Octaviano C., van Ruijven B.J., Beach R., Daenzer K., Herreras Martínez S., Lucena A.F.P., Kitous A., Labriet M., Loboguerrero Rodriguez A.M.L., Mundra A., van der Zwaan B. 2016. Long-term abatement potential and current policy trajectories in Latin American countries. Energy Economics. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2016.01.011.
Jones B., O'Neill B.C., 2016. Spatially explicit global population scenarios consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Environmental Research Letters. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084003.
Kober T., Summerton P., Pollitt H., Chewpreecha U., Ren X., Wills W., Octaviano C., McFarland J., Beach R., Cai Y., Calderon S., Fisher-Vanden K., Rodriguez A.M.L., 2016. Macroeconomic impacts of climate change mitigation in Latin America: A cross-model comparison. Energy Economics. DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2016.02.002.
Knorr W., Arneth A., Jiang L., 2016. Demographic controls of future global fire risk. Nature Climate Change, 6, 781-785. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2999.
Levis S., Badger A., Drewniak B., Nevison C., Ren X., 2016. CLMcrop yields and water requirements: avoided impacts by choosing RCP 4.5 over 8.5. Special issue on Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate ChangE (BRACE). Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1654-9.
O'Neill B. C., Tebaldi C., van Vuuren D.P., Eyring V., Friedlingstein P., Hurtt G., Knutti R., Kriegler E., Lamarque J.-F., Lowe J., Meehl G.A., Moss R., Riahi K., Sanderson B. M. 2016. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461-3482.
Ren X., Weitzel M., O'Neill B.C., Lawrence P., Meiyappan P., Levis S., Balistreri E., Dalton, M.G. Avoided economic impacts of climate change on agriculture: integrating a land surface model (CLM) with a global economic model (iPETS). Special issue on Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate ChangE (BRACE). Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1791-1.
Riahi K., van Vuuren D.P., Kriegler E., Edmonds J., O’Neill B.C. and 42 Coauthors, 2016: The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, in press. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009.
Sanderson B.M, O’Neill B.C., Tebaldi C., 2016. What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets? Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 7133–7142. DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069563.
Tilmes S., Sanderson B. M., O'Neill B. C., 2016. Climate impacts of geoengineering in a delayed mitigation scenario. Geophysical Research Letters, 43. DOI: 10.1002/2016GL070122.
van Ruijven B.J., 2016. Mind the gap – the case for medium level emission scenarios. Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1744-8.
van Ruijven B.J., Daenzer K., Fisher-Vanden K., Kober T., Paltsev, S. Beach R. H., Liliana Calderon S., Calvin K., Labriet M., Kitous A., Lucena A.F.P., van Vuuren D.P. 2016. Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions. Energy Economics. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.02.003..
van Ruijven B.J., van Vuuren D.P., Boskaljon W., Neelis M.L., Saygin D., Patel M.K., 2016. Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. DOI: 10.1016/j.resconrec.2016.04.016.
Weitzel M., 2016. Who gains from technological advancement? The role of policy design when cost development for key abatement technologies is uncertain. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies. DOI: 10.1007/s10018-016-0142-9.
Hu A., Levis S., Meehl G.A., Han W.,Washington W.M., Oleson K.W., van Ruijven B.J., He M., Strand W.G., 2015. Impact of solar panels on global climate. Nature Climate Change, 6, 290-294. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2843.
Jiang L., O’Neill B.C., 2015. Global urbanization projections for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Global Environmental Change. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.008.
Johansson D., Lucas P., Weitzel M., Ahlgren E., Bazaz A.B., Chen W., den Elzen M.G.J., Ghosh J., Grahn M., Liang Q-M., Peterson S., Pradhan B.K., van Ruijven B.J., Shukla P., van Vuuren D.P., Wei Y-M., 2015. Multi-model comparison of the economic and energy implications for China and India in an international climate regime. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 20(8), 1335-1359.
Johansson, D.J., O'Neill B.C., Tebaldi C., Häggström, O, 2015. Equilibrium climate sensitivity in light of observations over the warming hiatus. Nature Climate Change, 5, 449-453, DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2573.
Jones B., O'Neill B.C., McDaniel L., McGinnis S.A., Mearns L.O., Tebaldi C., 2015. Future population exposure to US heat extremes. Nature Climate Change, 5, 652-655. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2631.
Nawrotzki R. and Jiang L., 2015. Indirectly Estimating International Net Migration Flows by Age and Gender: The Community Demographic Model International Migration (CDM-IM) Dataset. Historical Methods. 48(3),113-127.
O'Neill B.C., Jiang L., Gerland, P., 2015. Plausible reductions in future population growth and implications for the environment. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 112, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1421989112.
O'Neill B.C., Kriegler E., Ebi K.L., Kemp-Benedict E., Riahi K., Rothman D.S., van Ruijven B.J., van Vuuren D.P., Birkmann J., Kok K., Levy M., Solecki W., 2015. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.01.004.
Sanderson B.M., Oleson K.W., Strand W.G., Lehner F., O’Neill B.C. 2015. A new ensemble of GCM simulations to assess avoided impacts in a climate mitigation scenario. Special Issue on "The Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate Change (BRACE)," O’Neill, B.C., Gettelman, A. (eds). Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1567-z.
Tebaldi C., O'Neill B.C., Lamarque J-F, 2015. Sensitivity of regional climate to global temperature and forcing. Environmental Research Letters. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/074001.
van Ruijven B.J., O'Neill B.C., Chateau J., 2015. Methods for including income distribution in global CGE models for long-term climate change research. Energy Economics, 51, 530-543. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2015.08.017.
Ebi K.L., Kram T., van Vuuren D.P., O'Neill B.C., Kriegler E., 2014. A New Toolkit for Developing Scenarios for Climate Change Research and Policy Analysis. Environment: Science and Policy for Sustainable Development 56, 6-16. DOI: 10.1080/00139157.2014.881692.
Ebi K., Hallegatte S., Kram T., Arnell N.W., Carter T., Edmonds J., Kriegler E., Mathur R., O'Neill B.C., Riahi K., Winkler H., van Vuuren D., Zwickel T., 2014. A new scenario framework for climate change research: Background, process, and future directions. Climatic Change, Special Issue on "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions." DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0912-3.
Hunter L.M., O'Neill B.C., 2014. Enhancing engagement between the population, environment, and climate research communities: the shared socio-economic pathway process. Population and Environment, 35(3), 231-242. DOI: 10.1007/s11111-014-0202-7.
See related blog post by the Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Program.
Jiang L., 2014. Internal consistency of demographic assumptions in the shared socioeconomic pathways. Population and Environment, 35, 261-285. DOI: 10.1007/s11111-014-0206-3.
O'Neill B.C., Kriegler E., Riahi K., Ebi K., Hallegatte S., Carter T.R., Mathur R., van Vuuren D., 2014. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: The concept of Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Climatic Change, Special Issue on "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2.
Meiyappan P., Dalton M., O'Neill B.C., and Jain A.K., 2014. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale. Ecological Modelling, 291, 152-174, DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.07.027.
Rounsevell M.D.A., and Coauthors including O’Neill B.C., 2014. Towards decision-based global land use models for improved understanding of the Earth system. Earth System Dynamics 5, 117–137. DOI: 10.5194/esd-5-117-2014.
Schweizer V.J., O'Neill B.C., 2014. Systematic construction of global socioeconomic pathways using internally consistent element combinations. Climatic Change, Special Issue on "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions." DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0908-z.
van Ruijven B.J., and Coauthors, including Schweizer V., 2014. Enhancing the relevance of global shared socio-economic pathways for climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation research. Climatic Change, Special Issue on "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions." DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0931-0.
van Vuuren D., Kriegler E., O'Neill B.C., Ebi K., Riahi K., Carter T., Edmonds J., Hallegatte S., Kram T., Mathur R., Winkler H., 2014. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: Scenario matrix architecture. Climatic Change, Special Issue on "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions." DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1.
Birkmann J., and Coauthors including van Ruijven B.J. and O'Neill B.C., 2013. Scenarios for vulnerability: Opportunities and constraints in the context of climate change and disaster risk. Climatic Change Special Issue on "Advancing Climate Change Adaptation and Risk Management," Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0913-2.
Deetman S., Hof A.F., Pfluger B., van Vuuren D.P., Girod B., van Ruijven B.J., 2013. Deep greenhouse gas emission reductions in Europe: Exploring different options. Energy Policy, 55, 152-164.
Jones B., O'Neill B.C., 2013. Historically grounded spatial population projections for the continental United States. Environmental Research Letters 8, 044021 (11pp). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044021.
Koelbl B., van den Broek M., van Ruijven B.J., van Vuuren D.P., Faaij A., 2013. A sensitivity analysis of the global deployment of CCS to the cost of storage and storage capacity estimates. Energy Procedia 37, 7537-7544.
Lucas P., Shukla P.R., Chen W., Bazaz A.B., van Ruijven B.J., den Elzen M.G.J., van Vuuren D.P., 2013. Energy system changes for China and India under different climate stabilization pathways. Energy Policy 63, 1032‐1041.
Pachauri S., van Ruijven B.J., Nagai Y., Riahi K., van Vuuren, D.P., Nakicenovic, N., Brew-Hammond, A. 2013. Pathways to achieve universal household access to modern energy by 2030. Environmental Research Letters 8. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024015.
Rogelj J., McCollum D.L., O’Neill B.C., and Riahi K., 2013. 2020 emissions levels required to limit warming to below 2 °C. Nature Climate Change 3, 405-412. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1758.
Tanaka K., Johansson D.J.A., O'Neill B.C., Fuglestvedt J.S., 2013. Emissions metrics under the 2 C climate stabilization target. Climatic Change 117, 933-941. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0693-8.
Vuuren D.P., Deetman S., Vliet J., Berg M., van Ruijven B.J. , Koelbl, B. 2013. The role of negative CO2 emissions for reaching 2 C - insights from integrated assessment modelling. Climatic Change 118, 15-27. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-012-0680-5.
Jones B., 2012. Assessment of the potential-allocation downscaling methodology for constructing spatial population projections. NCAR Technical Note NCAR/TN-487+STR, 52 pp.
Krey V., O'Neill B.C., van Ruijven B., Chaturved V., Daioglou V., Eom J., Jiang L., Nagai Y., Pachauri S., Ren X., 2012. Urban and rural energy use and carbon dioxide emissions in Asia. Energy Economics 34, S272-S283. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.04.013.
Kriegler E., O'Neill B.C., Hallegatte S., Kram T., Lempert R., Moss R., Wilbanks T., 2012. The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Global Environmental Change 22(4), 807-822. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.05.005.
Lawrence P., Feddema J. J., Bonan G. B., Meehl G. A., O'Neill B. C., Levis S., Lawrence D. M., Oleson K. W., Kluzek E., Lindsay K., and Thornton P. E., 2012. Simulating the biogeochemical and biogeophysical impacts of transient land cover change and wood harvest in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) from 1850 to 2100. Journal of Climate, 25, 3071-3095. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00256.1.
Melnikov N., O'Neill B.C., Dalton M.G., 2012. Accounting for household heterogeneity in general equilibrium economic growth models. Energy Economics 34(5), 1475-1483. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.06.010.
See related model code (zip).
O'Neill B.C., Liddle B., Jiang L., Smith K.R., Fuchs R., Dalton M., Pachauri S., 2012. Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions. The Lancet 380, 157-164. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(12)60958-1.
O'Neill B.C., Ren X., Jiang L., Dalton M.G., 2012. The effect of urbanization on energy use in India and China in the iPETS model. Energy Economics 34, S339-S345. DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.04.004.
See related Nature Climate Change Research Highlight.
Tol R.S.J., Berntsen T., O'Neill B.C., Fuglestvedt J.S., Shine K., Balkanski Y., Makra L., 2012. A unifying framework for metrics for aggregating the climate effect of different emissions. Environmental Research Letters 7, 044006 (8pp). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044006.
van Vuuren D.P., Batlle Bayer L., Chuwah C., Ganzeveld L., Hazeleger W., van den Hurk B., van Noije T., O'Neill B.C., Strengers B.J., 2012. A comprehensive view on climate change: Coupling of Earth System and Integrated Assessment Models. Environmental Research Letters 7, 024012 (10pp). DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/7/2/024012.
O'Neill B.C., Schweizer V., 2011. Projection and prediction: Mapping the road ahead. Nature Climate Change, 1, 352–353. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1241.
Riahi K., Dentener F., Gielen D., Grubler A., Jewell J., Klimont Z., Krey V., Mccollum D., Pachauri S., Rao S., van Ruijven B.J., van Vuuren D.P., and Wilson, C. 2011. Energy pathways for sustainable development. Global Energy Assessment: Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press.
Sanderson B.M., O'Neill B.C., Kiehl J.T., Meehl G.A., Knutti R., Washington W.M., 2011. The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Environmental Research Letters, 6, 12 pp, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/6/3/034005.
van Ruijven B.J., Lamarque J.-F., van Vuuren D., Kram T., Eerens H., 2011. Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution. Global Environmental Change: Human and Policy Dimensions, 21, 983-994. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.03.013.
van Ruijven B.J., van Vuuren D.P., de Vries H.J.M, Isaac M., van der Sluijs J.P., Lucas P.L., Balachandra P., 2011. Model projections for household energy use in India. Energy Policy, 39(12), 7747–7761. DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.09.021.
van Vuuren D.P., Stehfest E., den Elzen M., Kram T., van Vliet J., Deetman S., Isaac M., Klien Goldewijk K., Hof A., Mendoza Beltran A., Oostenrijk R., and van Ruijven B.J., 2011. RCP2.6: Exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C. Climate Change, 109, 95-116. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0152-3.
Jiang L., 2010. Impacts of demographic dynamics on climate change. Population Research, 34, 59-69, DOI: 10.1007/s1113-010-9189-7.
O'Neill B.C., Dalton M., Fuchs R., Jiang L., Pachauri S., and Zigova K., 2010. Global demographic trends and future carbon emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, J. Bongaarts, Ed.,107, 17521-17526. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1004581107.
O'Neill B.C., Riahl K., Keppo I, 2010. Mitigation implications of mid-century targets that preserve long-term climate policy options. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107, 1011-1016. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0903797106.
Zeng Y., Jiang L., Zheng W., Gu D., 2010. The trends of Chinese households and living arrangements for the elderly. Research on Elderly Population, Family, Health and Care Needs/Costs, Science Press.
Huang Y., Jiang L., 2009: Housing inequality in transitional Beijing. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 33, 936-956. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2427.2009.00890.x.
Jiang L., O'Neill B.C., 2009. Household projections for rural and urban areas of major regions of the world. IR-09-026, 26 pp.
Zigova K., Fuchs R., Jiang L., O'Neill B.C., Pachauri S., 2009. Household survey data used in calibrating the Population-Environment-Technology Model. 26 pp.