Rain on the window of a bus

Publications in the review process

Pendergrass, A.G., Gerald A. Meehl, Roger Pulwarty, Mike Hobbins, Andrew Hoell, Amir AghaKouchak, Céline Bonfils, Ailie Gallant, Martin Hoerling, David Hoffmann, Laurna Kaatz, Flavio Lehner, Dagmar Llewellyn, Philip Mote, Richard Neale, Jonathan Overpeck, Amanda Sheffield, Kerstin Stahl, Mark Svoboda, Matthew Wheeler, Andrew Wood, and Connie Woodhouse. Flash droughts: High-impact events that present a new challenge for S2S prediction, revised for Nature Climate Change.


(PDF, GRL) Pendergrass, A.G., Dani Coleman, Clara Deser, Flavio Lehner, Nan Rosenbloom, and Isla Simpson (2019) Nonlinear Response of Extreme Precipitation to Warming in CESM1. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2019GL084826.

(GRL) Gettelman, Andrew, Cecile Hannay, Julio Bacmeister, Richard Neale, A. Pendergrass, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Jean-Francois Lamarque, John Fasullo, David Bailey, David Lawrence (2019): High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2019GL083978.

(JClim) Sippel, Sebastian, Nicolai Meinshausen, Anna Merrifield, Flavio Lehner, A. Pendergrass Erich Fischer, Reto Knutti (2019): Uncovering the forced climate response from a single ensemble member using statistical learning. Journal of Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0882.1.

(JClim) Kramer, Ryan J., Brian J. Soden, A.G. Pendergrass (2019): Evaluating climate model simulations of the radiative forcing and radiative response at the Earth's surface. Journal of Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0137.1

(GRL, PDF) Prein, Andreas F., and A. G. Pendergrass (2019), Can we Constrain Uncertainty in Hydrologic Cycle Projections?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 2018GL081529, doi:10.1029/2018GL081529.

(NCC) Eyring, Veronika, Peter Cox, Greg Flato, Peter Gleckler, Gab Abramowitz, Peter Caldwell, William Collins, Bettina Gier, Alex Hall, Forrest Hoffman, George Hurtt, Alexandra Jahn, Chris Jones, Stephen Klein, John Krasting, Lester Kwiatkowski, Ruth Lorenz, Eric Maloney, Gerald Meehl, A. Pendergrass, Robert Pincus, Alex Ruane, Joellen Russell, Benjamin Sanderson, Benjamin Santer, Steven Sherwood, Isla Simpson, Ronald Stouffer, and Mark Williamson (2019): Taking climate model evaluation to the next level. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0355-y.

(PDF, GRL) A.G. Pendergrass and Reto Knutti (2018): The uneven nature of daily precipitation and its change. Geophysical Research Letters. doi:10.1029/2018GL080298. Listen to an interview about it on Colorado Public Radio, or read about it in Science Editors' Choice.

(CCCR) Byrne, Michael P., A.G. Pendergrass, Anita Rapp, and Kyle Wodzicki, 2018: Response of the Intertropical Convergence Zone to Climate Change: Location, Width and Strength. Current Climate Change Reports. doi:10.1007/s40641-018-0110-5.

(PDF, Science) Pendergrass, A.G., 2018: What precipitation is extreme?, Science. doi:10.1126/science.aat1871.

(ERL) Meehl, Gerald, Claudia Tebaldi, Simone Tilmes, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Susan Bates, A.G. Pendergrass, and Danica Lombardozzi, 2018: Future heat waves and surface ozone, Environmental Research Letters. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aabcdc.

(JGR-A) Kay, Jennifer E., Tristan L'Ecuyer, A.G. Pendergrass, Helene Chepfer, Rodrigo Guzman, and Vineel Yettella, 2018: Scale-aware and definition-aware evaluation of modeled near-surface precipitation frequency using CloudSat observations, JGR-Atmospheres. doi:10.1002/2017JD028213.

(JClim) Yettella, V., Jeffrey B. Weiss, Jennifer E. Kay, and A.G. Pendergrass, 2018: An ensemble covariance framework for quantifying forced climate variability and its time of emergence, Journal of Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0719.1.

(PDF) Pendergrass, A.G., Andrew Conley and Francis Vitt: Surface and top-of-atmosphere radiative feedback kernels for CESM-CAM5. Earth System Science Data. doi:10.5194/essd-2017-108.

(Sci. Rep.) Pendergrass, A.G., Reto Knutti, Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, and Benjamin M. Sanderson, 2017: Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate. Scientific Reports, doi:10.1038/s41598-017-17966-y.

(GRL) Frey, William R., Elizabeth A. Maroon, A.G. Pendergrass, and Jennifer E. Kay, 2017: Do Southern Ocean cloud feedbacks matter for 21st century warming? Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2017GL076339.

(GRL) Lehner, Flavio, Sloan Coats, Thomas F. Stocker, A.G. Pendergrass, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Christoph C. Raible, Jason E. Smerdon, 2017: Projected drought risk in 1.5°C and 2°C warmer climates. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1002/2017GL074117.

(ESD, PDF) Sanderson, Benjamin M., Yangyang Xu, Claudia Tebaldi, Michael Wehner, Brian O'Neill, Alexandra Jahn, A.G. Pendergrass, Flavio Lehner, Warren G. (Gary) Strand, Lei Lin, Reto Knutti, and Jean Francois Lamarque, 2017: Community Climate Simulations to assess avoided impacts in 1.5°C and 2°C futures. Earth System Dynamics, doi:10.5194/esd-8-827-2017.

(PDF) Benedict, James J., Brian Medeiros, Amy C. Clement, and A.G. Pendergrass, 2017: Sensitivities of the Hydrologic Cycle to Model Physics, Grid Resolution, and Ocean Type in the Aquaplanet Community Atmosphere Model. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 9, 1307–1324, doi:10.1002/2016MS000891.

(J. Clim., PDF+) Pendergrass, A.G. and Clara Deser, 2017: Climatological characteristics of typical daily precipitation. Journal of Climate, 30, 5985–6003, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0684.1

(GRL, PDF^) Pendergrass, A.G., Kevin A. Reed and Brian Medeiros, 2016: The link between extreme precipitation and organized convection in a warming climate: Global radiative convective equilibrium simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 43, doi:10.1002/2016GL071285. (See the EOS Research Highlight)

(J. Clim., PDF+) Pendergrass, A.G., Edwin P. Gerber, 2016: The rain is askew: Two idealized models relating vertical velocity and precipitation distributions in a warming world. Journal of Climate, 29, 6445-6462. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0097.1

(GRL, PDF^) Pendergrass, A.G., Flavio Lehner, Benjamin M. Sanderson, and Yangyang Xu, 2015: Does extreme precipitation intensity depend on the emissions scenario? Geophysical Research Letters, 42 (20), 8767-8774. doi:10.1002/2015GL065854.

(J. Clim., PDF+) Pendergrass, A.G. and Dennis L. Hartmann, 2014: Changes in the distribution of rain frequency and intensity in response to global warming. Journal of Climate, 27, 8372-8383. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00183.1. (Download code to calculate rainfall distributions and the shift+increase modes)

(J. Clim., PDF+) Pendergrass, A.G. and Dennis L. Hartmann, 2014: Two modes of change of the distribution of rain. Journal of Climate, 27, 8357-8371. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00182.1. (Download code to calculate rainfall distributions and the shift+increase modes)

(PNAS, PDF) Donohoe, Aaron, Kyle C. Armour, A.G. Pendergrass and David S. Battisti, 2014: Shortwave and longwave radiative contributions to global warming under increasing CO2. PNAS, 111, 16700-16705. doi:10.1073/pnas.1412190111.
(See press releases from MIT News, Oceans at MIT, and UW Today, and press coverage at the Daily Mail.)

(J. Clim., PDF+) Pendergrass, A.G. and Dennis L. Hartmann, 2014: The atmospheric energy constraint on global-mean precipitation change. Journal of Climate, 27, 757-768. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00163.1

(GRL, PDF^) Pendergrass, A.G. and Dennis L. Hartmann, 2012: Global-mean precipitation and black carbon in AR4 simulations. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L01703, doi:10.1029/2011GL050067. (Or read about it at Science Editor's Choice)

(J. Clim., PDF+) Pendergrass, A.G., Gregory J. Hakim, David S. Battisti and Gerard Roe, 2012: Coupled air-mixed-layer temperature predictability for climate reconstruction. Journal of Climate, 25, 459–472. doi:10.1175/2011JCLI4094.1

(MWR, PDF+) Pendergrass, A.G., and Hugh E. Willoughby, 2009: Diabatically Induced Secondary Flows in Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Quasi-Steady Forcing. Monthly Weather Review, 137, 805–821. doi:10.1175/2008MWR2657.1

Theses, dissertations, and reports

(PhD dissertation) The atmospheric energy constraint on precipitation change, 2013. University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences. Advised by Dennis Hartmann.

(Masters thesis) Time-averaged data assimilation for midlatitude climates: towards paleoclimate applications, 2009. University of Washington, Department of Atmospheric Sciences. Advised by Greg Hakim, Gerard Roe, and David Battisti.

(Undergraduate honors thesis) Climate feedbacks in the surface radiation budget, 2006. University of Miami, Department of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography. Advised by Brian Soden.

(Project report) Analysis and modeling of a sea fog event over the Yellow Sea, 2005. At the Ocean University of China as part of REU Marine Science in China. Advised by Gang Fu.

(Project report) Ensemble forecast bias correction, 2004. At the National Severe Storms Lab as part of National Weather Center REU. Advised by Kim Elmore.

Google Scholar

Data: Radiative kernels

Code: Github

Radiative kernel demo / tools
Rainfall distributions and shift+increase modes of change
Extreme precipitation event tracking

Presentations and Posters

I've given a number of scientific presentations, including seminars, shorter talks, and posters. See my CV for details.

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^ An edited version of this paper was published by AGU. Copyright American Geophysical Union.